PREDICTIVE MODELS CONSTRUCTION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRICULTURE EXPORT POTENTIAL IN THE VLADIMIR REGION
Abstract
The work is aimed at solving the urgent problem of researching the peculiarities of building predictive models of indicators of foreign economic activity of the region in the direction of agricultural sector development. The aim of the work is to study the aggregated indices of foreign economic activity efficiency evaluation for the construction of predictive models of target indicators of foreign economic activity of the region. The distinctive feature of the considered indices is the possibility to take into account exogenous factors when building a forecasting model, as well as to assess the potential for complication of the region's export basket. The article shows an example of calculating the index of economic complexity and the index of product complexity for the agricultural sector of the Vladimir region. The development of a new methodology for forecasting indicators of foreign economic activity, based on the provisions indicated in this work, will eliminate the existing problems in the practical use of existing forecasting techniques, taking into account external factors, allowing to identify the causes and directions of variability of foreign trade relations of the region in the industry of agriculture.
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