Стратегическое планирование бюджетного обеспечения физической доступности продукции

Today, in the field of food security, fundamentally new strategic tasks have been set to ensure the physical and economic availability of products for every citizen of the country at the level of rational consumption standards and above. Physical is primary in relation to the economic accessibility of products – without the availability of products, it is impossible to ensure their consumption. At the same time, there is reason to believe that economic accessibility stimulates physical accessibility - demand creates supply. It is in this context that more and more scientists and specialists

In the last decade, the country's agricultural policy has intensified significantly. The volume of budget allocations allocated to support agriculture has increased significantly, and the volume of credit resources issued by banks has increased

Figure 1 - Dynamics of the ratio of the level of production per capita with rational standards for certain types of products in 2017-2022

DOI:10.60797/JAE.2024.45.2.1

According to Figure 1, it is clear that significant growth potential to the level of rational consumption standards exists in the production of vegetables (+18%) and milk (+31%). An analysis of food balances

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for the main types of products per capita showed that self-sufficiency of rational standards is possible only taking into account reserves in the short term. Obviously, it is necessary to focus on those subsidizing measures that are most effective in solving food problems, and to strengthen the targeting of support funds. Without improving the quality of planning work in the agricultural economy, it is difficult to count on success in strategic planning, including ensuring the physical availability of products.

Today, planning methodology has developed several fundamentally different approaches, which are offered by the All-Russian Research Institute of Economics and Standards – a branch of the Rostov Scientific Agrarian Center

The methodology proposed by the authors is based on methods of calculation and normative planning. Product production volumes to create physical accessibility must be consistent with the norms of rational consumption. Determining the volume of necessary funds for production should occur through a balance sheet linkage with final indicators (production volumes, resources and profitability). The technique can be considered in the form of the following algorithm (Figure 2).

Figure 2 - Algorithm for calculating the level of financial support for agricultural production

DOI:10.60797/JAE.2024.45.2.2

The proposed methodology allows us to determine the level of resource support for production in the amount of physical availability and the amount of subsidies to create conditions for the reproduction of resources (labor, material and technical). The calculation algorithm consists in determining the required volume of gross (produced) output, ensuring the degree of coverage of the costs of its production, taking into account subsidies at a given level of profitability.

According to the authors, to ensure simple reproduction, the required level of profitability is in the range not lower than the price index for material and technical resources, but also not lower than the weighted average rate on deposits, otherwise the point of doing business is lost. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

The methodology is socially oriented and takes into account the relationship between the income of producers and wages of workers, which in the calculations is increased to the average level for the region. The peculiarity of the methodology is also that it is based on the production and budgetary efficiency of the use of funds, which allows, at the pre-project stage, to determine and take into account indicators of production growth, efficiency, profit and profitability of production from support, as well as the payback and capacity of subsidies in agriculture. The financial component of production projects is calculated for each type of product per unit of sown area, head of animals and in general.

Calculations using the developed methodology show that in order to ensure conditions for the reproduction of labor and material and technical resources, even while maintaining the current level of material costs and depreciation, state support for agricultural production must be increased (Table 1).

So, for grain per 1 hectare of sown area it should be 1.1 thousand rubles for simple reproduction, for extended reproduction – 2.2 thousand rubles, for vegetables – 73.8 and 107.1 thousand rubles. Accordingly, for cattle meat per head of animals – 4.2 thousand rubles for simple and 6.3 thousand rubles for expanded reproduction, for milk – 11.6 and 16.7 thousand rubles per head of animals, accordingly, the share of support in resource provision and in gross output is increasing. Thus, for simple reproduction, the share of support for grain production in resource provision will be 5.5%, in gross output – 4.7%, vegetables – 11.3% and 9.7%, respectively, cattle meat – 9.7% and 8, respectively 8.3%, milk – 11.3% and 9.7%, respectively (Figure 3).

Figure 3 - Share of support in resource provision and in gross production of main types of agricultural products

DOI:10.60797/JAE.2024.45.2.4

This share of support in gross output is quite at an acceptable level. In some countries, the share of support in the structure of gross output is decisive. According to the data of scientists

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,

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,

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, the share of support for rice in Japan and South Korea is 76%, and the share of support for milk in EU countries is 48%.

Today there is a slight increase in prices for resources, an increase in prices for agricultural products, an increase in depreciation and wages. Taking into account possible changes in these components, the total amount of state support for agriculture was calculated by type of product. To maintain and increase the achieved level of production, a certain increase in state support is required (Table 2).

To ensure the physical availability of main types of products through domestic production, the existing volume of support must be increased. For the purposes of state support for the industry, 520 billion rubles are required in 2024 for simple reproduction, 863 billion rubles for expanded reproduction, and 596 billion rubles in 2028, and 990 billion rubles, according to the simple and extended type of resource reproduction.

In this regard, the structure of support will also change (Figure 4).

Figure 4 - Structure for supporting production and ensuring physical accessibility of agricultural products

DOI:10.60797/JAE.2024.45.2.6

Thus, in the structure of support for expanded (simple) reproduction, the largest share belongs to milk 39% (45%), vegetables 18% (19%) and grain 20% (14%). The least amount of money is required for sugar beets 1% (1%), sunflower 2% (1%) and potatoes 6% (7%). This production structure will be linked to the structure of rational nutrition for the main types of products.

Thus, the need to strengthen the targeting of state support funds to solve problems of ensuring physical accessibility based on domestic producers is dictated by the times. It is difficult to imagine full-fledged planning in this context without appropriate methodological support. The insufficiency of the functional and simulation capabilities of the methods proposed in science does not allow justifying the amount of support taking into account the complexity of the problem of agricultural development and ensuring food security. The author proposes his own methodology, the essence of which is, first of all, to determine the level of financial support for production in the amount of physical availability and the amount of subsidies to create conditions for the reproduction of expended resources. Where physical accessibility is formed, it is recommended to use the profitability value for simple reproduction in calculations, otherwise, for expanded reproduction. The methodology is socially oriented and takes into account the relationship between the income of producers and wages of workers, which in the calculations is increased to the average level for the region. The methodology is of interest to authorities making strategic decisions related to the provision of resources to state programs in agriculture and aimed at achieving goals in the field of food security.